Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Nips Hypothetical

The proposed is an interesting quandray. Three 1-loss teams deserving of a title shot against the MIGHTY USC.
Here's kinda how I see it breaking down. If OSU beats Texas they vault to #2 in the rankings and Texas drops to somewhere around 7-8. At this point, I'm not even sure if Penn St is ranked. Now after Penn St. beat us, with both teams being unbeaten, would they jump up ahead of a one loss Texas? Here's the hypo-situation:

The week before Penn St. beats OSU (real life) let's flip OSU and Texas in the polls and bump Texas up 1 spot.
OSU - 2
Texas - 6
Penn St. 17

They might. However, the more interesting question is, would a 1-loss OSU fall behind a 1-loss Texas? You bet they would. That means a now unbeaten Penn St. a 1 loss OSU and Tejas shapes up like this...
Texas 5
Penn St. 7
OSU 8
That's how I feel the polls would break down. Now after the Michigan loss, and everything plays out, you end up end season with Texas 2, OSU 3, Penn St 4 effectively the same exact bowl situation as we have now. Which teaches us one thing, it's not how good you look, it's where you started in the polls. (Voter polls)
Now, it's possible that the voters could change their collective mind in the last week, and I personally think, it might have happened. Or would it?

PLUS, OSU and Penn St would both be above Texas in the computer with it probably being OSU, Penn St, Texas in that order. And with the poll BCS component being a % of total vote and not the rank, it wouldn't take much voter swap to get a change. Let's look...

1) Story lines. Oh those crazy voters love story lines. The biggest one? JoePa's return to glory. The voters screwed him in '94. Why? They thought Osborne was retiring soon and gift wrapped him a national title. This year, the voters are pretty sure JP is going to die soon, that gains him some votes.

2) Players. Voters want to see the best players in the biggest games. Remember it's not USC vs. Texas. It's Leinart and Bush vs Young. Trust me, I hate it to, but it's how it works. This fact gains Texas some votes.

3) Head-to-Head matchups between them swing some votes too

So here's how I think it ultimately plays out...the two polls wind up like this
Texas - 2 (Love players and Mack Brown)
Penn St - 3 (Joe Pa, plus Penn St. beat OSU)
OSU - (No story lines, but they take some of Texas's votes since they beat them)

I think the entire AP/Harris poll is separated by less than 60 points from 2-4. What's that due? Makes the computer component even more of a factor.

Hypo Computer poll
OSU - 2
Penn St - 3
Texas -4

Since the pollsters know how the computer will affect things, and they want Penn St. to go rather than OSU for reasons previously mentioned, they gain a few more votes. PLUS Penn St. going it the least controversial since they beat one of the other two, and didn't lose to one of them.

Therefore the final BCS rankings would look like this...
Penn St 2
OSU 3
Texas 4

I know I'm making some assumptions, but hey, it's a hypothetical, that's what you do.

3 Comments:

At 12:58 PM, December 09, 2005, Blogger Nipsey said...

You little poll expert you - you're so cute.
All your random (albeit educated) poll predictions reminded me of that nerd in WoW who said their chances of survival were 32.3333333333333%
Anyway, I agree with most of what you wrote, but I still think that the poll people (is that a poll person?) would do whatever it took to get Texas in the Rose.

Oh, and no one has answered my follow-up query (hee hee - query). Would this be a bigger controversy than that shitty 2001 Nebraska team somehow playing in the title game?


Other thoughts on a Friday:

- Watched most of the Dunbar / Lawrence North game last night. I'd forgotten how boring high school basketball is. Oden was dominant, especially on the boards. A lot of that had to do with the fact that he's just a lot taller than everyone he's playing against though. Oh, and needless to say, ESPN was swinging from his scrotum all night.

- The World Cup draw is in a couple hours, and like all fans of the U.S. I'm absolutely terrified. I'm not saying we deserved a top seed, but the way the pools are set up, things could get real dicey. Some of the projections I've seen make it seem like going 1-1-1 in the group stage again would be a minor miracle. With all that being said, the ability to play the biggest of the big names on the biggest of stages wouldn't exactly be an uninteresting thing to watch. And I mean, it's not like we didn't show up against Portugal, Mexico, and Germany in 2002. I'll write more on all this after the draw...because I know you're all dying to talk about it. (By the way, it's a shame I'm at work during the live broadcast of the draw - Heidi Klum's the emcee.)

- Rumor has it that the Diddy is in town this weekend, but how much you wanna bet he pulls a Phil and doesn't show?

 
At 1:14 PM, December 09, 2005, Blogger Jack Fu said...

I'm printing off an outline, but while I'm here:


A.) Texas would still get in. They would have lost the longest time ago. I don't like it, but that's the way things work.

B.) No, that would not be bigger controversy than that terrible 2-loss Nebraska team making it over 10-1 Oregon. And people forget this, but Nebraska still made it to the title game, without even winning their division in the BXII, primarily because the voters only dropped them to #4 after the 1,436-28 shellacking they took at the hands of Colorado. And yet, we decided to give these idiots MORE power by weighing the polls more than the computers? Fucking brilliant. But anyways, there's an outside shot at it simply leading to "more" controversy, just because people get more and more angry with the BCS with each coming year. And yes, that just makes me love it more.

C.) Fuck, I meant to watch Oden last night, and I completely forgot. Fuck.

D.) It's the World Cup again? Already? It seems like that was just happening, and we were over at Evan's for the "Old School Rap Party" ... and yes, I just found a couple of pictures from that event. Yes, I will bring them down for Bowl Season.

E.) Unadjusted odds on Todd actually being there: 8-1

Odds on Todd being there, adjusted for the possibility that he will now show up just to make me wrong: 2.5-1.

You're welcome.

 
At 1:18 PM, December 09, 2005, Blogger Jack Fu said...

ALSO:



Fantastic take on the December bowls, and why each one is special, either in one sense of the word "special" (Peach Bowl" or in the other (New Orleans Bowl).

 

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