On Big Ten officiating
To begin with, I need to point out that Wonk has promised a super-sized edition of "Wonk Back" tomorrow, which will apparently cover officiating almost exclusively. Yes, this will break one of Wonk's cardinal rules, but it has apparently become such a hot topic amongst his readership that it demands analyzation. I did a small amount of this regarding fouls called on teams (not FTAs) once I found out that, through the OSU-Iowa game Saturday, Iowa is getting, on average, only 12.7 fouls called on them at home, compared to the 24.3 fouls their opponents are getting called for in games at Carver-Hawkeye. That's a home foul disparity of +11.6 in Big Ten games. Obscene. And it's not like they've been playing the dregs of the conference in those home games, either. Their 4 home contests have come against Illinois, Indiana, OSU, and Minnesota.
So I decided to compute each Big Ten team's foul disparity, both at home and on the road, and compared the two. The comparison stat, I suppose, could be labeled "home court foul advantage" or something, as it's the difference between foul disparity at home and foul disparity on the road.
(So, assuming, as it was in almost every case, that the "home disparity" turned out to be positive [more fouls called on your opponents than you during your home games] and the "road disparity" turned out to be negative [the opposite], the "HC Advantage" stat turned out to be:
(fouls called on your opponents at your home games - fouls called on you at your home games)-(fouls called on your opponents at your road games - fouls called on you at your road games). All of these are averages, by the way.
So, if you averaged a positive foul discrepancy at home and a negative one on the road -- as was true of every top-7 team but three: Iowa and Wisky had positive discrepancies on the road and OSU had a negative discrepancy at home -- your "home court advantage turned out to be positive, and usually pretty healthy.)
Whatever. I'm no stat-wonk like the uber-CBB bloggers out there. When I did the calculations, somewhat unsurprisingly, bad teams tended to have negative or negligible disparities on the home as compared to the road, so I am going to limit this study to the top-7 teams, the seven Big Ten squads who look like good bets to make the NCAAs come March (hence the "top-7" language up there).
|TEAM||Home Disp.||Road Disp.||HC Adv.|
What does this all mean? It seems to indicate that some teams who play at home tend to benefit big-time in the foul department, but fucked if I know for sure. If there's a better way for figuring this kind of thing, I would love a hand from the enginerds among us...