Thursday, September 28, 2006

OH.....I-O-WHAAAAAA

I'm taking a break from not posting my continued GVGOAT list in order to discuss this weekend's game. My main motivation is that I was just talking to the Land of Eternal Scooter Buckeye Optimism (LESBO) discussing the fact that OSU is a 7 point favorite heading into Saturday's tilt. He's convinced (shocking) OSU will win by more than that amount. I'm not convinced the Bucks will win at all.

As I see it, Ohio State is 1 win away from being 11-0 heading into Michigan week. MSU on the road...well, after the ND loss and playing UM right before OSU, they don't concern me. (DAGGONE COACHES!!) Therefore, this one is yooge. Heading into the season, I wasn't concerned about the Iowa game, b\c I had already conceded defeat. Now, I'm just at terror-dome level: "terrified".

OSU still cannot consistantly stop the run, although, they seem to be able to when absolutely necessary. Or, the Bucks could just be getting lucky at the right time. Tressel has made a career off of getting lucky at the right time, so I'm willing to concede it's not a fluke. But a better run-d, would be a welcome change.

Iowa had to go to OT with Syracuse, c'mon, Syracuse. I know that Iowa's backup QB is more likely to throw game than a decent pass, but still, OT with Syracuse. I also think Tate is slightly overrated, but the dude is a gamer and a winner. The whole key to this game is the Iowa O-line. If they hold (literally), OSU in check and OSU can't keep pressure or contain, Iowa will win. But, as long as goatlegs is in there, I feel pretty good about the D-Line.

Should OSU win? Probably. The bucks have more talent at almost every position.

Will OSU win? I've got a bad vibe about this game. At night, on the road, after eating their children last year...ugh, the fans will be ultra-lathered, and we've totally challenged the Hawkeye's manhood. State College nor Madison at night was good to us in recent years, I'm afraid this one won't be much different.

Prediction: 16-13 Iowa

8 Comments:

At 1:06 PM, September 28, 2006, Blogger Jack Fu said...

You know me. I'm as pessimistic (apparently) about sports as anyone any of you know. But if Iowa holds us to 13 points, absent unforeseen errors or bizarre circumstances, in a game that isn't played in a friggin' monsoon, I'll shit twice and die.

I still feel horrible about the game, but oddly serene at the same time. As Todd said, we have the talent advantage at virtually every position. Tate is great (!), but he has -- quite literally -- NO ONE to throw the ball to.

Keys to the game:

O: No turnovers. Plain and simple.
D: Hold Albert Young under 4.0 ypc.

Both of those things happen, and we're gravy.

 
At 1:12 PM, September 28, 2006, Blogger The Diddy said...

Penn St. held the offense to 14 points at home. Just a thought.

 
At 1:26 PM, September 28, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Break of Dawn

I don't really follow Buckeye football very closely. Everything I've learned I've learned from you here at the MidwestERNbias. I follow Iowa even less. But, overrated or underrated, Tate is the key. Tate will not throw 2 game sealing touchdowns to his opponent. My spidey senses are tingling and telling me he may throw one or two to his own team, so I'm looking at this game as Drew vs. Troy. I must ask...will Troy be able to match him?

 
At 2:32 PM, September 28, 2006, Blogger Jack Fu said...

Todd: note the qualifiers in my statement. About the game NOT being in a monsoon, etc.

 
At 2:40 PM, September 28, 2006, Blogger The Diddy said...

The field against Penn St was sloppy, but it certainly wasn't a monsoon. I'm guessing that's why they're changin the turf out at Ohio Stadium. I am guessing it won't be that bad at Kinnick. However, I don't care how crappy the field was, Troy was still overthrowing people and that's all mental.

 
At 3:06 PM, September 28, 2006, Blogger Scooter said...

ok ok.... As I am always bashed for being a loyal fan. Let's REALLY disect this game so the readers understand this game, not just go on their yoooge gut instinct.


1) Injuries
OSU = None
Iowa = Eubanks (Center) & Richardson (LT) both starters are doubtful/out with knee sprains. Let's not forget who lines up over center, Pitcock. Big trouble for Iowa. Tate also hasn't practiced on Tuesday or Wed. with his oblique injury. I don't expect this to effect his mobility, but it will affect those throws on the run equalling weak or errant throws which plays right into OSU hands. So the bucks will as always stack the box, control (not stop) the run, and wait for their opportunities.

2) Road Night Game
I'm as sick of hearing about this as I am about Charlie Weis, and that's pretty bad. Is it an advantage for Iowa? Absolutely. Has Troy Smith played in a few of these now? Check. Won at night, at Texas? Check. Did OSU schedule night practices this off season to address some of these issues? Check. These are the games where the you need steady qb play, and that is obviously Troy.
Experience at the WR position helps here as well, on check downs and reading the defense when crowd noise interfers.

3) Kirk Ferentz
Playing the bad cop on this one, I love Kirk. As a coach he scares the crap outta me. Good big game coach who doesn't take the big chances....
which means special teams plays a large role.

4) Special teams
Iowa return teams... were last in the nation last year and haven't gotten better, big edge here for OSU. Trepasso has punted well this year, great at times, but overall solid.

5) Troy Smith
Was last week a bump on the road or more of things to come with the inacurracy. I'll go with the bump in the road. Last year Troy played the worst we've seen vs. PSU, he seemed to press last week. Expect a bounce back game this week on national tv. BIG PERFORMANCE.

6) So what does this leave us with?
Basically OSU has an advantage in most categories which everyone can agree on even with my biased breakdown. Is a 7 point split too large? No way. OSU has been hearing about the away night games all year and the outcome Saturday will be the same as a warm night in Austin was a month ago. With or without a hopped up Matthew McHoughaney on the sidelines.

 
At 3:09 PM, September 28, 2006, Blogger Scooter said...

oh yeah. my pick......... 27-10 OSU

 
At 3:20 PM, September 28, 2006, Blogger The Diddy said...

I don't think it's reasonable to say a Texas night game = Iowa night game. During the broadcast from Austin, I heard as much reaction from OSU fans as I did from the Texas ones. I wouldn't expect that trend to continue.

I'm in agreement that all signs point to an OSU win. Hey, I hope you're right, but I just don't see any way OSU can win by 17. My gut tells me bad things about this game. That is all.

 

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