Monday, March 06, 2006

Bracketology 056: what other people are saying

Well, the regular regular season is over, so now it's time to really get into the regular post-regular postseason (rocket rocket), the conference tourneys. With only a handful of them completed, and with the vast majority of the "Major" or "Power" or "Meatnormous" conferences not yet tipped off, I felt like a little look at the prevalent Bracketology would be a good way to spend my pre-studying Monday.

I guess we'll start with the man, the myth, The Lunardi. He apparently has OSU the top seed on the 2-line, matched up in the same region as what is apparently the "weakest" 1-seed, Memphis. Can you say "1999"? Nothing like weak 1-seeds to help a potential march through, uh ... March. Also notable, from a midwestern perspective: he still has Michigan in, seeded 11th in the East (don't give me any of that "Washington D.C. Region" bullshit. It's the East, Atlanta is the Southeast, Minneapolis is the Midwest, and Oakland is the West. Deal with it). This is interesting from a B10 POV because it seems to be commonly accepted that Indiana has assured themselves of a spot, and now Michigan is the team on the proverbial bubble. Also notable: five Missourah Valley teams - leaving Creighton out but including Bradley, who scored a total of 8 points in the first 16:30 of the second half of their game against So.Ill. yesterday. He also has the Colonial getting two teams in (George Mason and UNC-Wilmington), leaving Hofstra on the outside looking in (and still, one has to assume, being Dutch while flying).

Bracketology 101 also appears to have OSU the top 2-seed, matched up with Memphis. As for the other topics: they have Michigan in, at a 9-seed; they have the exact same five MVC teams in; however, for the Colonial, they also have two teams getting in, but they include Hofstra and have UNCW in the "last four out."

I had never seen this site before, but Pomeroy linked to it today, so I checked and it seems pretty cool. Anyway, today's bracket has OSU a 2-seed in Villanova's region; that sucks, but the road looks pretty clear until the Elite Eight, in my opinion. This guy has all seven Big Ten teams in, as well as all six of the possible MVC teams AND all three of the possible CAA teams. So who the Christ is he leaving out? Well, this is the only projection I've looked at that leaves out Cal, and he also leaves out Florida State, Utah State, Syracuse, and Air Force, teams which are so "on the bubble" that they might as well set up shop there until Sunday.

CBS Sportsline resident college basketball "opinionated writer" (NOTE: this is how CBS commercials which pimp their website refer to their columnists. This may be the first media group to outright admit that their goal is to be assholes and piss off readers. It's "shock jock" radio on the written -- er, typed -- page.) Gregg Doyel has the Bucks at a 1-seed. Despite that, the site's official bracket projection looks like this. Weird. Otherwise: he has Michigan out of the tournament, saying their loss to Indiana, combined with Florida State's win at Miami, bumped the Wolverines off that old proverbial bubble. Also, he has four MVC teams in, saying that "Missouri State's blowout loss to Northern Iowa in the MVC quarterfinals sends the Bears to the NIT." We'll see. And he's the second prognosticator I've seen who has all three of the CAA's big dogs getting in: "Book it," he says of George Mason, Hofstra, and UNCW all getting bids.

Rounding out the Monday, some guy named Michael Lazarus at Fox Sports decided to tell everyone what he thinks about the tournament. He has OSU the 2-seed in Memphis's region, but states that "if they run (the) table, (a) No. 1 seed (is) still likely." Big fan of the shorthand, Mike is. And now I'm Yoda. Anyways, he has Michigan in at a 9-seed, and, like Doyel, he has all three CAA teams in, but is leaving out both Creighton and Missourah State.

So there you go. Up later this week: more basketball! Specifically, an update of last year's hilarious "how to fill out your bracket like a semi-not-idiot" post, as well as one of my trademark opuses that will hopefully lead to some reader interaction. Adios.

Edited to add: Okay, so the first time around, I forgot about the MWB's favorite Erin impersonator, Stewart Mandel. He has OSU the 2-seed in Memphis's region, and Michigan a nine playing 8-seed George Mason for the right to upset Duke. He also has all three Colonial teams making the dance, but has booted Creighton and Missourah State, saying that "the Bears could shatter the record for highest RPI-rated team left out (34)." Wow, I had no idea they were that high.


At 12:54 PM, March 07, 2006, Blogger Nipsey said...

Sure, I'd like to see Ohio State get a #1 seed, but I don't think it's gonna happen. Here's why:

The argument goes like this. If we run the Big 10 table, our resume will be sufficiently strong enough to overtake Memphis and Texas to get that last #1. Lunardi himself has even bought into this one. There's one huge flaw in this argument though. The selection committee NEVER watches or cares about the Big Ten championship game. They don't even pretend to. Just look at 2002, Buckeye fans. The committee just makes sure Northwestern didn't win it somehow and goes from there. The game is simply too late in the whole process.

Now, this scenario COULD play out if the selection committee produces a situation where OSU and Memphis (for example) will be the #1 and #2 seed or #2 and #1 seed in a region depending on the outcome of Sunday's game. But past experience tells me they won't be that organized to make it work with that little time left and having to take the pods into consideration. (Is that a pod person?)

Also, we're assuming we win the Big10 tournament. That's a huge assumption. Yeah I think we can do it, and to be honest, I think we should win it. But I'm not exactly teeming with confidence.

At 12:58 PM, March 07, 2006, Blogger Nipsey said...

Just found out Terence Dials won the Big Ten Player of the Year.

I'm awfully surprised, but many congrats.

By the way, he's big and black.

At 1:09 PM, March 07, 2006, Blogger Nipsey said...

Some other random thoughts:

- Michigan and Indiana are both locks. ("That's a big lock.")

- I say The Valley gets 3 or 4. No more. And there will definitely be a record set for highest RPI in the NIT this year.

- Leaving Cal out? Really?!

- I can't wait to see what they do w/ the Colonial. Jorge Mason's got the better resume, but Hasselhoffstra has beaten them I think 3 times. This may be a scenario where the committee says the league gets either 1 in or 3 in, not 2. By the way, not sure if you realized, but as of a few years ago Hofstra is no longer the Flying (or Frying) Dutchmen. They're the Pride. It disgusts me to even write this. That is the single greatest disparity in quality between any team's old name and its new name in sports history.

- Please committee... find a way to get Air Force into the tournament. Do it for us, the viewing public.

- For the last time, Stewart Mandel does NOT look like Erin. Erin was much, much fatter.

At 1:35 PM, March 07, 2006, Blogger Jack Fu said...

A.) OSU getting a 1-seed I'm pretty sure moves them out of Dayton. I don't know if we're really gonna go to the first round if it's in Dayton, but Todd seems dead-set on it. I don't think Dayton carries a top seed, so we'd be shipped off somewhere else, I think, if we get the 1.

B.) I assumed that if we get to the Big Ten finals and Memphis gets to or wins theirs by Sunday, that's exactly what the committee would do: if we win, we'd get the 1; if we lose, we're the top 2-seed and Memphis gets the one. Of course, now that we're talking about this (and since my viewing fast is now over) the Bucks are assured of losing to Penn State on Friday. Sorry.

C.) Congrats to TD. I don't know why, but I had a feeling he'd get it once he averaged a double-double for the month of February or whatever that was.

D.) Don't be so sure about Michigan. Look at their resume; it's pretty shaky and they've lost like 6 out of 8. If they lose to Minnesota on Thursday, they'll be SQUARELY on the bubble.

E.) I think the committee's gonna blue-ball the MVC too. It's 50/50 between them getting 3 or 4, with 4 being the absolute max.

F.) Air Force? Is this because of our love for slow-down Princeton-style offense? Did I miss something?

G.) I don't know why, but when I see Mandel, I think of Erin. It's a mental block. Someone needs to show me a picture of this fat bitch STAT so I'm not thinking about her everytime I open up

At 3:16 PM, March 07, 2006, Blogger The Diddy said...

I'm not sure why OSU getting a 1-seed would force them to leave Dayton. With podulation, being a 1 seed should actually increase OSU's chances of going there. Especially since there's no other team in the entire region close to OSU's resume, I'm not even sure how they could go anywhere else.

Verification word: hopnfux, I liked it.

At 3:47 PM, March 07, 2006, Blogger Nipsey said...

We're a lock for Dayton as long as we're a 1, 2, or 3 seed. As Todd said, podulation makes this possible.

As for guys realize they're already sold out, right?
And with the entire male population of the state of Ohio trying to cram itself into tiny UD Arena, prices are gonna be ree-donk-you-luss for any ebay/scalping opportunities.

(Supply & Demand ! - my economics degree is finally paying off.)

I'm not ruling it out. I'm just saying there's a good chance we'll be on Evan's couch (and/or lap) come next Thursday.

I was actually hoping for Auburn Hills for rounds 1 and 2. We could come visit Taylor one last time and the Pizza Papalisibilities would be endless, much like my appetite (for pizza and basketball.)

At 6:35 PM, March 07, 2006, Blogger Jack Fu said...

I stand, sit, sleep, drink, and eat corrected.

Are they seriously entirely sold out? That seems unpossible [/Wiggum]. Not that I have a problem with it -- quite frankly, I have no money to buy tickets. And I mean "NO" money. So I probably wouldn't be able to afford to go anyway. Plus, we'd miss out on all the "four games going on at once"-ness. And possibly (*fingers crossed*) some curling. I'm perfectly content watching the games at Evan's...

Word verification word is "menlez". I think I just shit my pants laughing.


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